Since 2019, investment and rental property prices are facing their first real test for the first time. Mortgage rates are quickly rising, which puts downward pressure on prices. Therefore, many real estate investors are asking themselves if they should buy now before interest rates increase or whether they should wait for a likely market decline. 

People who buy and sell real estate need to know this question, and we can find out for ourselves with some simple math. 

The variables

Here, I’ll walk you through the differences between buying now and waiting for a “crash” to see how your returns might fluctuate. Using calculators, I will show you how to perform these statistics on your own.

Let’s put together two situations to see what happens. We’ll use home values just as an example. The first is to purchase now (mid-May 2022) when 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rates are about 5% and the median house price in the United States is $400,000. 

After that, the normal house price will drop by 10% to $360,000, although this will not occur until the end of 2022, at which point interest rates for investors would rise to around 5.75 percent.

Timing is Everything

Please understand that I am not predicting a crash at this time. Prices will certainly begin to level out in the next months, and they may even begin to decrease at some time over the next year or two, in my perspective, rather than continue to rise. However, I do not believe that a 10 percent decline is possible.

In general, limited inventory and demographic demand will likely exert upward pressure on home prices, counteracting the impact of higher interest rates. However, we are living in unusual times, and the future path of the property market is uncertain at this point.

As shown by this blog, I’m going to model what I believe to be a real “crash” scenario – a 10 percent decrease in house prices – and see how it plays out. Though we could run an infinite number of scenarios, the “crash” scenario is the most fascinating to me since it is the one that receives the most number of queries.

The rent charges in all situations were $2800/month, with an average gain of 3 percent predicted after the acquisition. I did this because, even if prices do fall a little in the next year or two, I expect a substantial increase in real estate value over the following ten years. I understand that rent could decrease in a “crash” scenario, but I want to keep the number of variables in the study as few as possible. Therefore, I kept rent the same in both situations. 

Analysis

This rental property calculator will be used to make this analysis as simple as possible, so I’ll enter my predictions here as well. 

Scenario 1: Buy now

Purchase Price : $400,000

Down Payment: $100,000 (25%)

Closing Costs: $7,000 closing costs 

Annual Appreciation: 3% 

Loan Details: 5% interest rate, 30-year fixed rate

Rent: $2800

Assuming that I held the home for ten years, the cost of this fictional house would climb to $538,000, and I would be making more than $10k per year in cash flow after a decade of modest rent increases. In the scenario that I was to sell the home after ten years, I would make a profit of $265,000, which is a 13.28 percent annualized rate of return on my investment. Excellent profit margins! 

Scenario 2: Wait for a price drop (10% price correction)

Purchase Price : $360,000

Down Payment: $90,000 (25%)

Closing Costs: $7,000 closing costs 

Annual Appreciation: 3% 

Loan Details: 5.5% interest rate, 30-year fixed rate

Rent: $2800

For example, in Scenario 2, if I owned the home for ten years, the worth of this fictional house would climb to $484,000, and I would generate about $11 thousand dollars in cash flow every year. Suppose you’re asking why the property’s value is lower in both situations. In that case, I’m assuming an average annual appreciation rate of 3 percent in all scenarios, which results in a lower value for the property. Our starting point for Scenario 2 was $360,000, as opposed to $400,000 for Scenario 1, which was the situation in the previous scenario.

In the event that I decided to sell the home after ten years, I would make a profit of $245,000, which is a 13.44 percent annualized rate of return, which is somewhat greater than the rate of return in Scenario 1. 

Breakdown

Considering these two assessments, it is clear that the differences between these two scenarios are not very significant. Scenario 1 generates a bigger overall profit ($265,000 vs. $245,000), while Scenario 2 generates a better rate of return (13.44 percent vs. 13.28 percent). This is since you invested $90,000 down to gain $245,000 in Scenario 2, but you put $100,000 down to get $265,000 in Scenario 1.

If it seems that I manipulated the inputs to make the outcomes appear comparable (which I occasionally do for the sake of explaining), I did not do this. I devised a reasonable market collapse scenario that resulted in the following outcome, which I believe was reasonable.

To be honest, I was pleasantly surprised by how similar the outcomes of these two situations turned out, and I considered the findings reassuring. It is understandable to be concerned about the state of the marketplace and where we are headed in the next few months.

Receiving the findings of this study and discovering that “buying now or waiting for a 10% correction is roughly the same” gave me greater confidence in my investment plan.

My opinions on the current market situation

Because even though this is a perplexing marketplace, I am still aggressively seeking discounts. Here is why.

In the next year or two, I anticipate the market will continue to rise or somewhat level out in value. However, it is challenging to predict when the market will peak considerably. In addition, I believe the market will appreciate much more in the following weeks and months. Overall, I am not attempting to time the market since I have tried it previously and failed miserably every time.

According to the statement I made at the outset of this post, there are two independent variables within that equation: interest rates and real estate prices. One of these factors is up in the air, while the other looks pretty definite. My theories concerning the future of investment property prices are based on my observations of what has happened in the past, but they are only my thoughts. Investment Mortgage rates, on either hand, are virtually certain to rise shortly. The Federal Reserve is adamant about keeping inflation under control. Bond yields are increasing fast, causing mortgage rates to rise. Since the direction of interest rates is foreseeable, but the route of property value increase is not, I am attempting to make judgments based on the variable that I can more accurately predict: property value growth.

Predicting the Market

Even if the market does fall over the next year or two, I firmly believe that anything all along the lines of a 5 percent correction is more plausible than a 10 percent drop, even though a 10 percent correction is still theoretically possible. A 5 percent loss, which I will refer to as Scenario 3, results in the worst returns of all: $244,000 in profit at a 13 percent annualized return, which is the poorest return. This occurs because the fall in prices is insufficient to balance the increase in interest rates. As a result, even if the difference is tiny in the long term, purchasing now has a slight benefit over what I believe will happen most realistically in the following years, in my opinion.

These situations are preferable to what I believe alternative investments may provide in terms of returns. With inflation already eroding the purchasing power of money at an annual rate of 8 percent, I feel a great need to put my money to work. Currency is dropping in value at an alarming rate, and I do not want to see my purchasing power diminish. It is unappealing to own bonds since they pay a negative real interest rate (they do not even keep up with inflation).

Even though I invest in the stock market, I do not believe that I will achieve a 13 percent annualized return over the next 10 years in the stock market, nor do I believe that I am knowledgeable enough about cryptocurrency to allocate a significant portion of my net worth to that asset class. True, I am prejudiced in favor of real estate since I am most familiar with it. However, I think it will beat all other asset classes within the next ten years, bar none. 

Research Matters

Of all, these are only my estimates and thoughts regarding the market. Individual investors are ultimately responsible for making their predictions about the market at the end of the day.

Once you feel where you believe the market is headed, it is time to do your research! As I did, use the calculators, news and related sources to evaluate whether now is a good time to invest or whether you would be better off waiting, depending on your estimates about where investment property prices and interest rates are headed shortly.

So do not let fear hold you back — crunch the figures believe in yourself and make an educated decision about your plan based on the information you gather. 

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The emphasis on completing deals, particularly in real estate and sales, might lead us to believe that closing deals are more difficult or time-consuming than accomplishing any other objective. However, no matter what you are trying to do — completing more deals, setting higher objectives, or employing real estate rock stars — the winning strategy is the same for everyone. And it doesn’t begin with a call to action. It all starts with your thoughts and feelings towards the objective.

There are a number of reasons why people choose to work with real estate investment coaches. They often hear, “I want to close more deals.” That’s a very reasonable and perfectly logical objective. However, what they actually want is to achieve greater levels of success in their endeavors.

The formula for closing deals

What is your secret to completing deals? If you have previous sales expertise, your response to this question is likely to be focused on how you have successfully completed deals in the past. Although experience is important, it can also be limiting if it is used to determine your future.

As a investment property expert, your technique for closing deals should be considerably different from most others in the industry. That is a complicated matter to answer since “some deals close, and other deals don’t.” Why should you care about this? When it comes to closing deals, playing the numbers game is the most effective strategy. The more you explore, the more opportunities you will find. One of the most important obstacles to completing a deal is the unwillingness to remain flexible and move ahead even when the agreement does not complete.

Being emotionally related to the achievement or failure of each individual real estate deal is easy, particularly for first-time real estate investors. However, concentrating only on the success of a single endeavor might restrict your ability to capitalize on future chances. The magic occurs when you get through the fear or sting of “failure.”

Success is more than closing deals

It is not necessary to close a certain number of deals to achieve success. Knowing that your ultimate objective is far greater than the project you are now focusing on allows you to have a more realistic perspective on what you genuinely want to achieve in your life and career. Occasionally, the failure of a deal might be more beneficial than the completion of the process. Remember to pay attention and keep moving ahead when a deal doesn’t work out because life is teaching you something that you will need in the future to close a larger, better deal in the future.

You’re playing the simple game when you just care about closing more deals. Play the long game by committing to success and being enthusiastic about the prospect of uncovering your own unique path to reaching it, no matter how many or what deals you complete in order to get there.

Align yourself with success

If you have read any earlier writings, it should not come as a surprise that the most effective approach to achieving success is to match your mental state with success.

If this is a new idea to you, here is a brief explanation of what it means. Your frame of reference is your mental surroundings; you may also consider it your aspirations. Your frame determines your state of mind. Your mentality influences the development of your plan and the execution of your activities. The most effective methods and most productive behaviors are born out of a frame that aligns with your goals and accepts the challenges that life throws at you. Affirming your goals and aligning your frame with achievement, no matter what life has in store for you at any given time, is the quickest, simplest, and most pleasurable approach to converting desire into reality.

When you connect your framework with your actual goal—success—you can release the strain that comes with individual transactions and begin to play a more effective long game.

Concentrate on what you have control over.

Let us take it, step by step. What exactly is the deal? An agreement established by two persons is referred to as a consensus. That is what makes the process of concluding agreements so uncertain. Looking back on your career, I am sure there are some transactions you were positive would close but did not, and other deals you were convinced would never happen that did wind up getting through. The outcome is not a reflection of your work ethic, preparedness, or expertise on the project. It is not a personal attack. You were either able to come to an agreement or unable to.

You control yourself and no one else. Have you ever spent time before an interaction analyzing how you will control the outcome? This is a fool’s errand. No matter how much we prepare, we can never control other people. No matter how passionate you are about a specific deal, the result lies in the hands of another person. Not closing a deal isn’t a failure. It simply means an agreement wasn’t reached, and it’s time to move on to the next deal.

Because we have no control over other people, directing our attention to what we can influence is more productive. There is just one thing over which you have the total command: your attitude of mind. Stay away from the minutiae of everyday life. It makes no difference what the market is doing or whether or not you were able to complete a transaction you wanted; it is all about your attitude of mind.

Your frame defines your starting position. Your goal is to achieve success. Before taking any action, begin from a position of success and confidence in yourself. If a contract does not close, tell yourself that it is not because a better one is not on the way. “I am not sure what transaction will conclude next, but I am certain it will be successful.” Determine that you are absolutely correct, and you will begin to understand the power of your own mind and perception.

You are never more than a phone call away from completing a transaction. It makes no difference what occurred yesterday or last year. Anything might happen in the next upcoming moments. Instead of being a daily slog focused entirely on completing more business, once you begin to live in that reality, your life may transform into an exciting adventure along your own route to success. Which one do you think sounds more entertaining?

The bottom line

When it comes to completing transactions, there is no formula. A contract is an agreement between two persons. And, since the only person you have authority over is yourself, there is no failsafe way for completing sales transactions. Just keep in mind that it’s as easy as this: some transactions close, and others don’t. Make a conscious decision to connect yourself with accomplishment and begin pursuing additional opportunities.

Success is the beginning point, not the goal, of your journey.

Value-Added Deal Closing Resources

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If you’ve been even slightly keeping up with recent financial news, you’ll know that the Federal Reserve finally increased interest rates, after discussing the move for a long time prior. As of March 16, 2022, rates moved by 25 basis points — with huge implications for the real estate market.

Let’s look at what the policy means and how investors should react.

Why have rates increased?

The federal funds rate is changed as a way of managing the economy. Given recent turbulence — such as the impact of the pandemic, rapidly rising inflation, and increasing gas prices — the government is using every tool in the box to keep the country stable. Raising the federal rate helps with this because it makes borrowing more expensive, encouraging people to save instead of spending.

This marks a stark contrast from previous policy — ever since the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed has kept interest rates low to stimulate spending and encourage economic growth. However, too much spending and growth eventually means more inflation, which is actually what we’ve experienced over the last few months. 

Although technically the rate increase only impacts banks that want to borrow reserve balances, they get passed on to consumers since these same banks are also lenders and must continue to cover their costs. Then, as consumers face higher interest rates, it also becomes more expensive for them to borrow — and more profitable to save.

The impact of an increase in the Fed rate

So far, we’ve spoken about increasing Fed rates as if monetary policy is an exact science and there could never be any negative consequences from raising rates. But this isn’t the case — although higher rates can be effective at fighting inflation, this tends to come hand-in-hand with reduced growth. In fact, if the policy is too effective, it could even end up causing a recession.

Basically, you can have too much of a good thing, so it’s important to watch the consequences of the rate hike carefully — especially if you’re a real estate investor that could be directly impacted.

We’re still very early on in the process, but one of the indicators we can look at is the beliefs on what’s likely to happen to the federal funds rate in the future from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, who help to make these decisions. So far, the median prediction is a federal funds rate of 1.875% — that’s a stark rise compared to the current rate, suggesting that the increases we’re seeing now are just the beginning.

In fact, it seems that we’re likely to experience an even higher rates increase, with FOMC participants expecting rates of around 2.4% over the next couple of years — that’s around the highest rates have been in recent years. However, once we reach this high point, it’s likely the Fed will start to reduce rates again to ensure economic stability.

What will be the effect on mortgage rates?

As a real estate investor, one of the figures that most interests you will almost certainly be mortgage rates. You might assume these are closely linked to the Fed rates since we’ve said increases make borrowing more expensive, suggesting banks would also charge consumers higher mortgage rates. Yet in reality, the Fed’s target rate doesn’t seem to have much impact on mortgages at all.

Historically, there hasn’t been a correlation between the federal funds rate and the rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. However, there has been a positive correlation between mortgage rates and the yields for 10-year Treasury bonds. Although the funds rate is one factor that determines the yields on bonds, many other aspects also have an influence — including current affairs and activity in the stock market. 

Considering the bond yields have increased so far in 2022 (thanks to inflation), it’s reasonable to expect that mortgage rates are also going to rise. They could reach close to 5% by the end of the year, which is much higher than recent times but still relatively low in the scheme of things.

What will be the effect on property prices?

Another salient question is what will happen to property prices. The more mortgage rates increase, the more expensive mortgages become, which in turn will reduce the number of buyers able to afford them. As a result, it’s reasonable to expect property prices to fall.

Yet things might not be quite simple in the current climate considering the high demand for houses from all quarters — including Millennials looking to get onto the property ladder for the first time and investors looking for a safe asset.

It’s hard to say which force will ultimately win.

What all this means for you

There’s a lot going on in the property market at the moment, and it’s going to be a fast-moving environment for the rest of 2022. With rising funds rates and mortgage rates likely, the best thing you can do is keep your finger on the pulse when it comes to the last policies and changes in property prices.

Looking to Refinance and Investment or Rental Property?

At New City Financial we strive towards continued excellence when providing our clients with fast funding, refinancing guidance and terms that make sense. Click here to get a Cash Out Refinance or Traditional Refinance Quote, or simply call us at (855) 848-2862.